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Kamis, 12 Desember 2013

14 Ideas to Make Newspace Accelerators Better

Business accelerators in Silicon Valley (CA), Boulder (CO), and across the US have been gathering the best young entrepreneurs, providing them the time, resources, and business connections necessary to start successful software companies.  These accelerators have helped such success stories as AirBNB: now worth $2.5B and DropBox: now worth $8B

Can the lessons from software-focused business accelerators be modified to benefit commercial aerospace firms (referred to here as “Newspace”) that need to develop physical hardware (not just software) with correspondingly longer product development cycles?  Are hardware-based accelerators possible?  If possible, what would these accelerators look like?  Below is an overview what accelerators are and my fourteen recommendations for enhancing the capabilities of Newspace accelerators.

For many, YCombinator wrote the definition of what an accelerator is.  Located in the Silicon Valley, YCombinator helps software startups succeed.  Twice per year they bring in a bunch of startups (from thousands of applicants) and invest in each firm ($20K for 3-7%).  In the early days, only a few firms were funded, recent batches have included over sixty startups in a single batch.  Over the course of three months (the length of the “batch”), YCombinator helps startups mature.  Some firms need help with an idea for a product, others with introductions (access to the YCombinator Rolodex), still others need help navigating the pitfalls of a growing software startup. 

Each batch culminates in Demo Day where each startup pitches to venture capitalists (and occasionally, Ashton Kutcher).  Both Air BNB and DropBox (mentioned above) were accelerated via YCombinator.  Many of the companies in each YCombinator batch…FAIL.  But the YCombinator assumes this failure will happen.  The compensation from wildly successful firms more than compensates YCombinator for the cost of the failed companies.  Since YCombinator does not know who will be successful at the outset, if the entrepreneur team is accepted into the YCombinator program…they get funded. 
YCombinator combines:
  • an “accelerator” (the advice and maturing services) with
  • a “startfund” (the capital that gets invested in each firm). 

For simplicity, I will use “Accelerator” generically throughout this post to mean the combination of both advice and capital.

Is a startup - a startup regardless of industry?  Sadly, no.  Although the YCombinator/Techstars accelerator model can serve as a template, important work still needs to be done to modify the software accelerator model to better fit hardware startups, particularly Newspace hardware startups.  The table below highlights a few of those differences:



Organizations have already begun the good work of porting the software accelerator model over to Newspace hardware startups.  Two examples include: Silicon Valley SpaceCenter and Space Tango.

Silicon Valley Space Center is a Newspace accelerator in the heart of software country (Sean Casey, Managing Director).  They provide frequent events (Hackathons) and networking opportunities.  But although SVSC makes introductions to angel capital, they lack a startfund of their own.  Space Tango is a more serious attempt to mirror YCombinator.  Space Tango has three month “batches” where participants relocate to Kentucky for a 12-week training program.  Space Tango has a startfund ($20K for 5% equity), with follow-on rounds possible.  Space Tango offers mentoring and accelerator services, but is a young organization, having only raised a $100K startfund to date.  The announcement of Space Tango’s initial batch should be made in the next few weeks.  

Below are a few recommendations for ways to build on these efforts.  My recommendations are influenced by:

I posit that Newspace ventures succeed faster with four accelerants:
  1. Low Capital to Start
  2. Speed to Market
  3. Capital and Liquidity Opportunities
  4. Industry Awareness

1.  Low Capital to Start.  Reducing the Capital requirements necessary to successfully fund a Newspace startup is a goal that both focuses the mind of Newspace entrepreneurs and focuses the efforts of support organizations like business accelerators.  For most entrepreneurs, proposing the business plan that requires hundreds of millions of dollars to execute and needs only one starry-eyed billionaire to agree is NOT a good recipe for repeatable success.  Even when the entrepreneur proposes a manageable business concept, accelerators add value by reducing costs for infrastructure services (e.g. office space, etc.) or access to capabilities that startup would normally not be able to afford (e.g. vacuum chamber for testing prototypes).  YCombinator has brokered a deal with Comcast to provide each startup extremely fast internet connection for their three-month stay in Silicon Valley.  What are the services from which a Newspace startup would most benefit?

2.  Speed to Market.  Minimal Viable Product (MVP) is a term common in software startups thanks to the work of Steve Blank and Eric Ries.  Like the name suggests, MVP’s push a startup to get a product into the hands of customers as soon as possible.  The MVP joke is if you’re not embarrassed by your MVP, your MVP is too mature.  MVP’s give entrepreneur early revenue and, more importantly, they give startups feedback from customers.  Although you don’t hear pharmaceutical entrepreneurs or nuclear power plant startups talking about MVP’s very often, the advent of Cubesats, NanoRacks-based ISS applications, and greater use of Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) technology on space projects enable the MVP concept to be added to the Newspace startup lexicon.  Two-year projects are preferred to five-year projects.  Are their ways the startup can commercialize a subcomponent of their “Two-Year Project” and get to market in one year?  As a general rule, faster to market is preferable.  Note that faster to market will reduce capital requirements also (linking #1 and #2).

3.  Capital and Liquidity Opportunities.  How do we get Angel investors in an industry?  Altius’ Jon Goff said something profound in a Thruster issue about a year ago that has stuck with me.  In other industries like tech, a good-sized portion of the industry’s Angels are created from successfully exiting entrepreneurs that now have experience and capital and still want to be involved in the industry.  However these successful entrepreneurs are not ready for the hard work of starting a second startup.  The profound part of Mr. Goff’s article is acknowledging how few exits Newspace has to its credit – thus the number of industry Angels may also be reduced compared to other industries.  While industry loyalists wait for the Angels to arrive, an accelerator could be very helpful here, introducing Angels from other industries to Newspace.  This work would supplement the good work the Newspace Global and many others are already working in this arena.  As discussed above, YCombinator not only offers capital from their startfund, but also brokers countless introductions between startup and capital sources.  With each introduction, YCombinator’s capital rolodex grows.  With each successful startup to graduate the program, YCombinator’s alumni network grows as well.  Both are important.

4.  Industry Awareness.  Newspace, focused on commercial aerospace projects, would greatly benefit from a higher industry profile.  Many still are unaware of the unshackling from Government contracts that is underway within the aerospace industry.  Accelerators can help significantly here.  By aggregating Newspace startups into a single effort, accelerators may be more influential to news organizations and those peaking over the fence into Newspace from the outside.  In the same way #1 and #2 are linked.  Note how #3 (capital and liquidity) are linked to #4 (industry awareness).

Here are Fourteen Ideas for enhancing a Newspace hardware accelerator:
  1. Makerspace (free tools, supplies, and office space) run by the Accelerator.  Because the cost and time to develop a prototype, aerospace firms have a tendency to develop elaborate PowerPoint files, predisposed to take contract money before engaging in any significant prototyping.  And when the industry does build, they over engineer since “this has to work” and often the project lacks prior iterations to leverage.  Chris Anderson, in his book, Makers: The New Industrial Revolution  illustrates how accessible manufacturing technologies are to the average person.  Jon Goff reinforced this point when describing the makerspace Altius uses in Denver and the 3-D Printer they use in the office.  Make these tools available to startups within your Accelerator.  I envision a facility that combines co-working space with a common makerspace area to access shared tools for R&D manufacturing.  What would you do if a laser cutter were as accessible as PowerPoint?  The ethos of the startup changes from talking to doing, from PowerPoint to building hardware.
  2. Small product/service.  Accelerator advisors should HIGHLY encourage their teams to think smaller.  Less to develop – reduced capital requirements - faster to market – probably faster to exit.  I like the story Jon Goff tells. He wanted to develop an orbital propellant depot (gas station in space) so he focused on tugs which could be a major component of depots (depending on the architecture) and could be developed much less expensively than a depot.  But tugs were still too big, too expensive for a startup develop, so Jon evaluated what elements of a tug he could make better.  Believing rendezvous and docking technology was ripe for disruption, Altius invented Sticky Boom. 
    Accelerator startups should be asking the same “downsizing” questions.  
  3. Greybeard Mentor/Labor Team.  Unlike software startups where a coder could be one of the world’s best before age 25, it takes time to develop as an aerospace engineer.  And the aerospace engineers with real-world experience are highly prized.  Under most scenarios, this type of experience is not available to Newspace startups.  Accelerators could offer each batch access to a team of semi-retired “Greybeards” – engineers with hardware roving on Mars or orbiting Jupiter.  Greybeards could review/critique plans by joining a firm’s advisory board or even play a more active role on startups that interest them.
  4. Partnership with local universities provide low cost graduate work force.  Another cost-saving method would be to offer the batch access to competent part-time workforce to help move the MVP to Demo Day.  I am not necessarily saying these same students would build the flight hardware that flies on the International Space Station (although some could).  I am saying that free competent labor can help enhance a startup’s product offering by Demo Day.  Good for the student.  Good for the entrepreneur.
  5. Shared Admin Services.  Using my Makerspace/co-working space as a model, batch-mates could share the cost of an administrative assistant.  Jon Goff laments the number of hours he spent, in the early days of Altius Space Machines, doing “non-CEO activities.”  They had to be done and there was no one else to do them.  An admin assistant could help alleviate this problem and make Accelerator-empowered CEOs all the more productive.
  6. ZeroG Partnership – free/discounted parabolic flights.  If YCombinator gives Comcast Business-class internet service to their batch-lings, then a Newspace accelerator could offer services like those listed below to help Newspace startups: (1) Suborbital Partnerships (Armadillo, Masten, etc) – free/discounted suborbital flights (2)NanoRacks Partnerships – free/discounted ISS flights (3) Access to major aerospace testing facilities (Boeing, a major university, etc.) (4) Low cost business solutions offered at a discount – even Newspace startups would like to have Comcast Business internet.
  7. ITAR Lawyer services FREE.  Worth mentioning here, unlike most software startups, Newspace startups need to be aware of International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and develop strategies to not run afoul with the State Department.  Many of these startups would benefit from lawyer services to help navigate the ITAR swamp.  An Accelerator can help facilitate this.
  8. Market Analysis and Biz Model Development Support (Newspace Analytics, Newspace Global, etc.).  Another service that would help young startups would be assistance in developing a business model with profit potential.  Firms like Newspace Analytics and Newspace Global or accelerator in-house services would be very valuable to the entrepreneur.
  9. Lessons from Clean Tech.  In preparing this post, I interviewed Interview Jeff Lints, Director of Operations, of the Energy Fellows Institute.  The Energy Fellows Institute looks to bring accomplished C-Suite executives or second-time entrepreneurs from other industries into Clean Tech.  Recognizing the challenge in attracting the best and brightest innovators to clean tech, the Energy Fellows are influencing the quality of the entrepreneurs in their industry through a similar accelerator-type program.  Newspace shares many of the same challenges to Clean Tech.  Newspace entrepreneurs may value greater participation from accomplished C-Suite executives and successful second-time entrepreneurs.  Imagine preparing for Newspace Demo Day where the entrepreneur is not only trying to woo potential investors but is also interested in attracting a COO/CFO/CEO from a stable of qualified candidates.  These C-Suite candidates have been watching each firm in the batch throughout the term.  Convincing one of them would, not only help your startup make better decisions, but also help close on the next round of funding.
  10. $200K up-front investment.  In the early days of YCombinator, they traded ~$20K for 3-7% equity.  Recently, they have increased their funding levels via a convertible note.  Space Tango is also talking $20K of capital offered to each startup (although Space Tango has hinted at the possibility of follow-on financing for those Newspace startups with promise).  So what is the appropriate capitalization level to enable startups to develop/test real products?  Jon Goff helped considerably here.  Mr. Goff recommended $200K for each startup.  This would cover early hardware R&D work and labor costs (the two largest expenses for early hardware startups) at least through Demo Day.  The $20K offered by several current accelerators is too small, if the intend of the capital was to truly produce a near-term MVP.
  11. Six-month Batches.  Both YCombinator and Space Tango offer an intense 3-month on campus experience for their batches.  A six-month cycle acknowledges that hardware takes longer to create then software code.  The six month batch also gives time to schedule testing via zero-g, suborbital flights, and local universities and large aerospace firms.  Such testing would be much more difficult to include if the program only lasted 3 months.
  12. Demo Day.  Without the lure and threat of a room of VC’s/Angels waiting for each startup’s presentation at the end of the batch, startups within the accelerator lose a strong forcing function.    A Newspace accelerator should put special emphasis here – the accelerator’s value to each startup will be heavily impacted by the quality of VC’s and Angels the accelerator can attract to Demo Day.  For most startups within the program – every decision should be made with Demo Day in mind.
  13. Newspace Accelerator for a better Newspace industry.  Although not required to be an accelerator, using the accelerator to promote the industry as a whole is strong way to grow the pie.
  14. TV Documentary/Reality Show for each batch.  Again, not required.  But with the success of ABC’s Shark Tank there appears to be an appetite for shows about entrepreneurs striving to make to succeed in business against all odds.  This may be one area where Newspace actually has an advantage over Silicon Valley and YCombinator.  Watching a startup team operate an welder, see a 3-D printer manufacturing parts and watch real hardware get tested on a suborbital rocket flight is much more satisfying television than overseeing a twenty year-old writing code in his apartment while eating Raman noodles and drinking Red Bull.

These ideas are expensive.  If an Accelerator offered $200K to five ventures per batch, that is $1M per year in equity capital investment.  Plus another $1M in operational costs to maintain the makerspace/co-working space, staff salaries, testing assistance for startups, etc.  $2M in annual obligations may be challenging to achieve.  However, an underfunded Accelerator loses much of its value and thus loses much of its appeal.

*********
Dream with me.  After months of interviews and intense deliberations, SpaceCombinatorselected its latest batch of Newspace startups.  Co-locating to Boulder, CO was an issue for some, but in the end the value of the six-month program, the access to all of the major aerospace firms along the corridor to Denver (and the occasional trip to the mountains) made the co-locating rule manageable.  $200K for 15% equity stake gave each selected firm an immediate $1.3M valuation.  SpaceCombinator chose the majority of firms for their ideas, but a few firms were selected because the selection committee was impressed with the founders (even while the product idea needed to be rethought).  Over the six-month batch, the firms worked with staff to develop products customers will buy.  A few firms switched products after R&D efforts indicated a needed pivot.  

SpaceCombinator provided a steady stream of guest speakers from both small and large aerospace firms at the weekly dinners.  NASA spoke one night.  DFJ’s Jurvetson spoke one night.  The in-house makerspace enabled a quick validation of design assumptions, and made conversations with customers more productive with tangible prototypes to discuss.  The teams were constantly iterating (iteration has always been the best type of failure).  Hardware tests were conducted via partnerships with the big aerospace firms.  One firm even flew suborbitally (twice).  Another batch-mate is on the manifest for an upcoming NanoRacks flight to the ISS.  SpaceCombinator’s alumni list is growing.  With a handful of successful exits and several dozen going concerns, alumni firms share a special bond with the current batch and look for ways to help these startups in the same way they were helped by even earlier batches.  Greybeards, SpaceCombinator’s group of seasoned veterans, taught several founders to weld, helped two startups understand the complexity of ISS-based deployments and introduced at least one firm to those within NASA’s ISS-utilization office.  The separate group of C-Suite executive veterans made the rounds to each of the startups.  They gave advice, asked questions, listened to Pre-Demo Day pitches.  One exec did not wait for Demo Day, she accepted an offer to join one of the firms as CEO.  The firm’s founder was only too willing to move to the CTO role to make room for the more accomplished CEO.  An unforeseen benefit has been the amount of cross-fertilization of ideas and methods that has come from co-locating the startups at the makerspace.  Teams come out of their offices to see what their batch-mates are working on.  All are motivated to build more and do more when others are watching.


And it all culminated in Demo Day.  NASA, Angels, VC’s, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Ball, NanoRacks, and others were all there.  Each firm in the batch took turns sharing slides and demoing hardware.  One firm had only that – a vision and limited HW model to show for their six month effort.  But several had strong stories of flight-demonstrated hardware, paying customers, and a plan for growth and profits.  One firm could already announce true revenue with presales from an upcoming commercial rocket flight.  SpaceCombinator took the concepts pioneered by software accelerator and made them work for hardware startups going to space.

Sabtu, 22 Januari 2011

11 Space Business Ideas from NASA JSC

"Bottle Suit" Concept
Last Thursday, NASA’s Johnson Space Center published the presentation, Human Spaceflight Affordability: Advanced In-house Development, a series of projects…space problems, that they would like to go solve (or work toward solving) using “primarily civil servants” but willing to “engage non-traditional partnerships” when needed.

On the one hand, JSC is looking to keep its workforce busy on value-add projects, so it is not surprising they are seeking to accomplish these projects primarily in-house.

But more importantly for an entrepreneur, JSC has just published eleven problems they believe are worth spending money to go solve. Can you close a business case around all of them…no. Will JSC solve them all...no.  But some of these ideas could be developed and offered commercially. 

Here is my summary of the eleven ideas, but do read JSC's full presentation.  For some of the ideas JSC goes into significant detail of their development plans or their proposed final solution.
  1. Dual purpose EVA suits: for space and surface work. Focused on grit tolerant joints. 
  2. Suit-Port: Half a space suit, rear-entry, easy access, eliminates pre-breathing, low risk of contaminating habitable environment.
  3. Man-In-A-Can/Bottle Suit: personal space pods for extended Astronaut EVA’s (see the image at the beginning of this post)
  4. Low-Mass/Low-Volume Exercise equipment. Perhaps wearable robotics to simulate the gravity’s effects on muscles (the opposite of what such exoskeleton projects are used for on earth).
  5. Free-Flying Cameras: Remote controlled cameras for inside and outside space stations. Deployable through the JEM airlock.
  6. Down Mass from ISS: capsule to return low-mass, high-value payloads down to earth from the ISS. Deployable through the JEM airlock.
  7. Demonstrate Earth aerocapture prior to using technique for future human missions
  8. “The Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV, or just SEV) is a pressurized robotic vehicle designed to carry two astronauts to various destinations in space.” When in space, the MMSEV is similar to idea number 3. Put wheels on the MMSEV and it drives around the moon. (page 163 of this NASA document for an MMSEV overview)
  9. Advanced Environment Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) – develop now for when humans need to travel a long way from home.  Significant work could be done advancing this idea without the need for rocket launch.
  10. Beyond LEO Habitats.
  11. Use ISS Waste to make propellant (maybe to fuel Free-Flying Cameras listed in number 5).
Eleven ideas. Thanks JSC. Entrepreneurs, sharpen those calculators.

Jumat, 20 Agustus 2010

The Astronaut Company

My mother tells a story that when I was six years old, I told her I wanted to own an “Astronaut Company”; not “be an astronaut” but own an astronaut company. No surprise, years later, I work on the business side of the aerospace industry. And so I have been following with interest the start of Astronauts for Hire, a non-profit organization tasked with preparing the next generation of commercial astronauts.

It is not hard to imagine a future where Bigelow stations dot low earth orbit and business owners are evaluating opportunities in orbit on such facilities. One big question for businesses will be the human question: as a business owner, how will my efforts on orbit be carried out?
  • Who will maintain my experiment on orbit? 
  • Who will run my camera for the film shoot? 
  • Who will pack the latest batch of protein crystals for their return trip to earth? 
  • Who has the micro-gravity experience to serve as Butler and maids at my hotel?
  • Do I bring these resources up to station with me or purchase a more turn-key solution where I provide the mission and others provide the space station and astronaut solution?
Astronauts for Hire offers a piece of that puzzle. Bigelow will no doubt hire/train a core group of astronauts themselves, especially initially. But if another company(s) can provide astronaut services at a lower cost, down the road, Bigelow may happily subcontract this portion of their service.

Additionally, I can envision a day where the rich and powerful own space yachts made out of customized Bigelow modules that they purchase for hundreds of millions of dollars each. Such yachts may need to be tended when not in use and serviced with the owner on board. An astronaut company could offer such a service. Such a need for a commercial crew, will expand the scope of the “astronaut” from scientist and pilot to include, perhaps, any human service performed on earth – all carried out in micro-gravity.

Currently, Astronauts for Hire’s service is limited to training the next generation of space pioneers. This training could grow to actually offering scientists on orbit as needed, and eventually for A4H or another company to offer any “LEO Human Service” on orbit. Scientists, pilots, repairmen, construction workers, cooks, maids, and more. This would be the true Astronaut Company.

This only confirms: all my best ideas I had by age six.

Sabtu, 20 Maret 2010

New Space Credit Union

A reader sent me this idea.  What do you think?  A viable business?  Please comment pros and cons.

Idea: Offer an Internet based Credit Union (think E-Trade except an online Credit Union instead of stock trading ) where profits from the organization are used to fund a combination of space prizes, R&D, and new space business ventures.  A few more details:
  • Federally charted to operate in all 50 states
  • Sign ATM/branch sharing agreements with existing brick and mortar credit unions to provide instant national reach (and great customer service)
  • As with all credit unions, each account holder has a voting share.
  • 1-3 years to start one with significant paperwork
  • Here is one site's 10 steps to starting your own credit union
I know very little about the nuts and bolts of banking.  But here are the things I like about a New Space Credit Union:
  • Relatively low start up capital since you would use depositors funds to offer loans and make investments.
  • Would garner significant support from existing New Space advocates adding early membership
  • Assuming competitive rates with other similar financial institutions, advocates would not need to sacrifice financial return or customer service to support the industry.
  • Competive rates and services would even draw non-advocates leveraging their deposits as well - all in the name of space development
  • There many successful credit unions across the country - no new technology is being pioneered.  Professionals exist that could be brought on board to run this one successfully.
So now the questions:
  • Has this already been done?  Is there already a new space credit union out there focused on using its profits to expand the frontier?  How about credit unions focused on non-space frontier expansion that could serve as a model?
  • How profitable could such a venture be assuming 1, 3, 5 thousand members?  I can model revenue fairly easily, but costs are hard to approximate without more knowledge about the industry.  I need to do some primary research.
Since I don't know much about credit unions, I called someone who does.  In the coming weeks, I am interviewing the President of local Credit Union with about 10 branches (finalizing a time now).  I want to find out more about the details of his industry, the profit potential of a credit union, expected costs, etc.  I will update this post with the results of that interview.

So now I need your thoughts.  I hope there are others smarter than me on this that can weigh in.

Sabtu, 30 Januari 2010

Space Business Ideas from OOTC

Space Business Ideas from OOTC

Ken Murphy over at Out of the Cradle has some interesting space business ideas:

  1. Vacuum Spheres: yep, bringing back "nothing" and charging for it.  Still need to better understand the market for this one.
  2. MDL Boxes: reusing boxes flown previously to cut down on the re-certification process.  Although Ken admits his method won't work under the existing regs, I think NanoRacks and Kentucky Space may be able to help us there.  I have some ideas on this one, but I will wait to more fully lay out my case for standardized experiment containers.
  3. Asteroid Data - satellite at EML-1 that maps the solar system in high-def and sells the results on a subscription basis to scientists, government agencies, and entrepreneurs.
  4. GeoSat Forensics - This idea needs a manned station at EML-1.  Since it would use less Delta-V to travel from GEO to EML-1, gather the over 600 tons of GEO junk and analyze how the material has aged utilizing your station at EML-1.  Such knowledge would be valuable for understanding which materials to use on future long-duration missions. Long-Term Idea.
  5. Emily Free Flyers - Launching Free Flyer platforms from an EML-1 manned station around the moon and back.  very low energy trajectory - selling space for experiments and product production runs.  Long-Term Idea.
  6. Monocoque Modular Transport - Develop a common "caplet" that sits atop any of the world's launchers with the modular ability to customize external "bolt-on" components based o the requirements of the mission - from trips to station to trips to the moon.
What I liked best (other than his affectionate reference to EML-1 as "Emily") was his quote:
"The more that cislunar space is opened up to entrepreneurs, the more they’ll be able to put their capital at risk to try out their ideas and pave the way for others to follow."